Both Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich want to stop Donald Trump. In order to do that, they’ve teamed up, but the bad news is that even together, they don’t have the numbers to do it easily.
From a mathematical point of view, the race for Cruz and Kasich is over. Neither of them can win enough states to get the 1,237 delegates that a candidate needs to win the Republican nomination.
The Kasich campaign announced on Monday that it would cease campaigning in Indiana, which gives Cruz enough advantage to compete there. On the other hand, Cruz won’t campaign in New Mexico and Oregon. Their main goal is to attack the front-runner by winning enough delegates to force a contested convention, which will give them a chance to compete on more even ground in Cleveland.
Let’s say Sen. Cruz will do well in Indiana, where he’s behind Trump by only a few percentage points. Indiana has 57 delegates which makes it one of the biggest states left where Cruz has a real chance. Although Kasich has an advantage in New Mexico and Oregon, it’s still not that clear whether he’ll have a win.
If we look at Donald Trump’s big lead, it is clear that the Cruz-Kasich Alliance should have happened a lot sooner. Even if this happened, it wouldn’t have made any big difference in the outcome of the race. The facts point out that there wouldn’t be any effect on past primaries, even if the two candidates decided to team up weeks ago.
I’m saying this because if we look at the previous primaries for example in Arizona, where Trump won with 46 percent of the vote, while Cruz and Kasich got a combined 40 percent, it shows us that it wouldn’t be enough to defeat Trump. The situation is the same in New York, where again both Cruz and Kasich didn’t stand any chance against Trump’s 60-percent lead.
Let’s get back to Indiana, where Kasich is backing down and letting Cruz take the lead. Donald Trump is currently polling at 41 percent, and Cruz has 33 percent. If we add the 16 percentage points that Kasich has, there would be a tight race between Cruz and Trump.
Now there is a big chance things won’t turn out like that, and one of the reasons is: People don’t like Ted Cruz. Only half of Kasich supporters say they’d vote for Sen. Cruz. This shows us that there is no real guarantee that the voters will play along with the alliance.
Image source: Dispatch